Potential Scenarios: Looking at What Lies Ahead
By Mark Matlock Posted on October 04 2009
Secretly, I’ve always wanted to be a television weatherman. Having grown up in California where the weather is fairly consistent and uneventful, this seemed like a cushy job. In fact, many people doing the weather in California were really stand-up comedians in disguise. When I moved to Texas in 1991, I realized that people there take weather forecasting much more seriously.
On the news the credentials of meteorologists and their equipment were constantly lauded (I’ve noticed this changing a bit in California, too). Of course, the weather in Texas is something that could be a matter of life or death—tornadoes, flash flooding, and lightning storms. As long as you wear sunscreen in California and stay off the roads during the one week in which it rains, you’re generally safe.
Sometimes weathermen are precisely accurate; sometimes they promise nothing but sunshine on days that turn into blizzard conditions. Despite their accuracy or lack thereof, it seems these television personalities maintain a fairly secure position as long as people like them and they continue to use sound forecasting principles. Predicting the future of youth ministry is, in many ways, similar to forecasting the weather. Everyone is an armchair meteorologist throwing out opinions with little consequence if they’re accurate or not.
In forecasting the future of youth ministry one must look for the warnings, the possibilities of what could happen. My friend Carolyn Corbin is a Christian socioeconomic futurist, and she uses a sound model for building scenarios for the future. So I’ve applied this model to the subject of youth ministry. While I’ve attempted to use accepted methods for “futuring,” one must realize that forecasting societal trends is more art than science. The task of forecasting is rather intuitive. I submit my thinking and scenarios for your consideration and discussion.
TRENDS, CONDITIONS, ISSUES
Corbin describes a trend as a general direction. A condition occurs when multiple trends come together, and an issue is the outcome when conditions emerge. Our model begins with monitoring trends significant to youth ministry. The world future society uses the Acronym DEGEST to categorize noteworthy trends. The Acronym expanded gives us Demographics, Economy, Government, Ecology, Society, and Technology, and is based on a model developed by Philip Kotler. Trends alone are at their base elemental and not of much value without pushing further into the model. Often trends are identified in youth culture or society-at-large, and many of them can be quite interesting, as any casual reader of the “Youth Culture Update” section of YouthWorker Journal can attest. But trends alone are relatively insignificant to the field of youth ministry until they combine and create the next stop on the model: conditions.
When looking out the window in Texas, a greenish-gray sky is a trend that could indicate a coming tornado. A look at the barometer may signify other trends that could also indicate tornadic activity. However, until these trends combine we won’t have a condition requiring a response. The combination of trends raises my awareness, because if the condition of a tornado should occur, I’ll have issues that will require a response.
Issues are the outcomes of conditions. If the tornado condition occurs, I may have to take cover quickly. The lives and ministries of my dear friends in Moore, Oklahoma, were severely altered as they responded to the issues that resulted from a tornado that occurred in their community.
A futurist attempts to look at the trends, predict potential conditions, and build scenarios of what could be done to respond to potential issues. A futurist will often build three to five scenarios of what could happen. With these forecasts in hand, a continuing monitoring of conditions helps to identify which scenario is most likely to occur. Like the person who steps outside to see if it will “really” rain before deciding what to wear, we must keep our eyes on these conditions to determine our course of action.
SEVEN CONDITIONS
There are seven conditions that I believe are currently facing youth ministry. From these seven conditions, I’ve constructed five potential scenarios for the future along with potential strategies that would be wise for youth ministers to pursue.
Breeding of Christians
Statistics and general observation suggest that in the United States, we’re reaching few people with Jesus’ message. In its 2001 Teen and Evangelism Report, Barna Research Group asserts that the likelihood of a person becoming a Christian before the age of 14 is 32%. Between the ages of 14 and 18, that likelihood is 4% and from 19 to death a mere 6%. Anecdotal research conducted at our conferences across the country support this notion.
The implication here is that we are merely breeding Christians, socializing them into Christianity through the family. This idea is further supported by the painful reality that once a high schooler leaves a youth group, he or she is not likely to stay involved in church. In a 2003 update, Barna Research asserts that 58% of frequent youth-group attenders won’t be attending a church by their 30th birthday.
Whether you trust these statistics or not, intuitively most of us realize that some of our most passionate youth group members fall away from the faith after graduation.
Virtual Paralysis
Most youth leaders agree that this generation has incredible potential to do the work of the Great Commission.
Unfortunately, many young Christians seem to be suffering from spiritual paralysis. All of us have experienced huge losses of time as we play a video game, flip TV channels, or surf the Web. This passive activity has created a condition whereby many students are willing to spend less time with ministry activities.
Market-Driven Ministry
You have to pay the bills. Whether through a fee or raising funds, someone has to foot the bill for ministry materials and events. Thus, youth ministers also have had to be armchair marketing experts, but we’ve reached a new level in ministry driven by the ability to move a product off the shelves or put a person in a seat. Unfortunately, what fills seats or causes something to move off a shelf isn’t always what changes or transforms lives. The community of youth ministry gives us identity and maps to follow, but we may be shaping our ministries around what sells versus what really ministers to young people.
Attention Deficit
Advertising is in trouble. We just don’t have time to watch a commercial or stare at an ad in a magazine. We buy devices to screen calls and filter spam from our e-mail inboxes. So now we’re being paid or receiving benefits for allowing ourselves to be marketed to. Time has become the most valuable currency in our economy and we only get 24 “bills” to spend each day. Gathering teens together for any significant length of time is becoming increasingly difficult.
Pseudo Events
The PR firm has replaced advertising in the commercial marketplace. Becoming a news item is more valuable than a commercial during the Super Bowl…and a lot less expensive. The manufacturing of “newsworthy” moments is what we call pseudo events, and the magazines, news programs, and newspapers need them to make a product everyday. From pundits to reality television, our lives are being filled with nonevents. This is leading us toward ministry that’s less impacting. Many mission trips and service projects could be considered pseudo ministry in which we’re rarely significantly advancing the kingdom of God.
Dualism
The gap between the sacred and the secular is widening, even though we see a few instances of the mainstreaming of Christianity. The mainstream Christian voice has been all but eradicated from the important discussions of the day. We have a generation that has grown up with a separation of the Church and…well, everything else. This dualistic cognitive style threatens the spiritual formation of every Christian teenager as they move from adolescence to adulthood.
Fear of Human Frailty
In the face of spiritual polarization, church leaders have become increasingly dogmatic in their beliefs, whether they’ve spent any time reasoning them to completion or not. The need for certainty in all areas of doctrine and biblical knowledge, regardless of their centrality to the Christian life, has increased. The fear of being wrong, of not having an answer and what that could mean to Scripture, has put many Christian leaders in places where they cannot be intellectually honest regarding certain issues (e.g. The old earth/young earth dilemma, evolution, etc.)
THREE DOMINANT ISSUES
Assessing the above conditions leads to many potential issues that we must be prepared to address in youth ministry. Three issues, I believe, are of major importance.
Hyper Individualism
Barna research has used this label to identify the symptom some consider one of the effects of postmodernism: the idea that we have a heightened sense of individualism. The idea of “one size fits all” no longer is appropriate. We design customized playlists for our music, Tivo (an individualistic verb now) shows of personal interest to watch at our leisure, borrow from a vast history of fashion to develop our own look, and design a moral code that fits our personal sense of justice.
The potential effects of hyper-individualism are most notably:
- Less free time
- Self-centered motivations
- Transaction-based relationships
- Personal morality
- Some degree of relativism
Complacency toward Inaction
As these conditions mature in our society, we’ll see increased apathy about significant community issues and less concern about this apathy. People will be busy and over-involved in events that don’t make significant impact in the world. As our students hear each “take your campus by storm for Christ” message and effectively don’t do anything about it, we’ll see much more rallying and less action. Leaders will thrive off the rally and care less about whether it led to any real change.
Some effects of complacency toward inaction are
- Spiritual growth focused around individual satisfaction, not Kingdom advancement
- Assumption that someone else will do it
- Lack of financial support
- Other regions of the church being used to advance the Kingdom
Cultural Isolation
As Christianity continues to separate from every essential aspect of life, it will become increasingly more personal and have less impact within the American culture (and as we export these values, world missions will also be challenged). The weakening of the Christian mind will continue its decay to absurd levels of irrationality.
Through Christian publishing and communications, teaching will continue on a niche trend and will fail to connect the whole of Scripture and theology, thus weakening the fullness of the Gospel message. The rise of many Christian cults will emerge as smaller communities form around these focused beliefs devoid of sound theology or biblical wisdom.
Other effects of cultural isolation are:
- The separation of church and everything
- “God said it, I believe it, that settles it”-oriented faith
- Power of Christianity is minimized through narrowly-focused philosophy and academics
- Issue isolation: specialized topics void of biblical holism or context
- Begin the age of “gullible Christians”
FIVE FUTURE SCENARIOS FACING YOUTH MINISTRY
Building from our conditions and three comprehensive issues, five probable scenarios can be built. There could be others, but five emerge as particularly strong potential directions. After the five scenarios, we’ll look at strategic directions that address each and spark thought for future action.
Kids Don’t Show
Following the reality that time will be limited and kids may not want to exchange their valuable time for “church experience,” youth pastors may be seen as unnecessary. Even if value is still placed on teens in the church experience, the need for a full-time youth pastor for the few gatherings that take place could be severely questioned.
Youth Ministry Proven Failure
Over the last several months I’ve been a part of many conversations with respected leaders and pioneers in youth ministry questioning whether what youth ministry has become is even effective. As we’re able to conduct more research and track real progress, it may be found that the current model of youth ministry needs to be scrapped for something new. Already we see new models being invented that are not merely stylistic in their deviation from the norm, but structurally different (e.g., family-based ministry replacing youth-only ministry).
God Raises the Remnant
Throughout history God has used small groups of people to accomplish holy purposes. It may be that a few youth ministers see their groups, representing just a tiny percentage of the teen population, utilized by the Lord for incredible Kingdom purposes.
Widespread Revival
Perhaps the world will hit an all-time low and people begin to humble themselves before the Lord and repent. Though I think an overwhelming percentage of youth pastors discount this scenario, we must at least consider the ramifications of it.
Mid-Size Churches Disappear
Small churches (fewer than 100 congregants) and larger churches (1000+) become the dominant congregations. The economic ability of these churches to maintain their existence and their missions is a reality we must consider in light of the potential issues facing American culture.
FIVE AREAS IN NEED OF ATTENTION
Increase Credibility
Considering the growth and sophistication of youth ministry over the last 20 years, youth pastors are still not as influential or respected as they should be in the church community. There’s a real need to educate the Christian community about the training youth pastors receive and the potential for Kingdom impact they can make. Even so, youth pastors have an image problem. They suffer from poor parent communication skills, lack of organization, and programs that center on their personalities rather than on strategic impact.
Since many issues threatening youth ministry are dependent on the perceived value of a youth minister, this must be addressed thoughtfully and sincerely.
Define Right Metrics
One of the greatest frustrations youth pastors face is when they don’t know how they’re being measured by kids’ parents and their church leadership. Few youth pastors have job descriptions, and the few actually written down are often vague and absent of measurable outcomes. This leads to youth pastors being evaluated by very different and very vague measures—ones that may or may not be valid.
To insure job security and reduce frustration, these outcomes and expectations must be defined along with proper reporting and accountability methods. New strategies should be approved by the church leadership to successfully survive potential failure or the frustration experienced by congregants when change occurs.
Many may find that the metrics being imposed on them don’t yield true disciples or allow for a biblical disciple-making ministry. Many of us are building ministries around these wrong metrics that don’t develop healthy Christian disciples. The metrics must measure the desired outcomes of the church body.
Adopt a “Go” Mentality
Jesus’ last words to the church were a call to centrifugal outreach: Jesus said, “Go!” This being said, most ministry programs are centripetal and focus instead on the word “Come.” While gathering together is essential to the formation of the church, it’s less effective at outreach.
Real disciple making occurs as we follow Christ into the world. Developing programming (other than the occasional mission trip or service project) that takes place where students meet and gather is essential for the future of youth ministry.
Also, it’s important to build into your students the desire to reach out in their lives rather than merely inviting friends to church. Time at church must be used effectively to develop believers and then see them reach out into the marketplace.
The greatest revolution in outreach will probably take place among marketplace leaders, not professional ministers or ministries. Thus, students must be equipped and prepared to integrate their faith into their living.
Leverage Your Influence
The cutting edge of youth ministry doesn’t lie in the newest event, technology, or model, but simply where the most time is spent individually with students. This said, we only have 24 hours to spend in a day. As youth ministers we must learn to leverage our vision across people. We need to manage our time effectively, realizing that if we’re weak in this discipline, we’re doomed to mediocre ministry.
Effectively empowering other disciplemakers within the church and equipping parents are essential to maximizing the influence you have in your church. The more a program centers around your gifts and abilities, the weaker the ministry, and surprisingly, the less perceived value you’ll have in your church community.
Another leveraging factor is within the larger community. There are countless programs and products we buy into simply because they’re there. Vote with your dollars. If a program or product won’t significantly impact your ministry, don’t buy it. The market will respond by increasing the quality and effectiveness of their wares.
Disciple Comprehensively
The Great Commission was a call to develop disciples, not simply to create converts. This requires training, teaching, and developing a whole person. One proposed reason students aren’t following Christ into adulthood has less to do with biblical relevancy and the perception of felt needs, and more to do with the lack of a well-developed disciple.
Messages that “devotionalize” Scripture—or worse, fail to use it at all—weaken the Christian mind. 1 Peter 3:15 definitively calls us to give a reason for the hope that we have. Our students severely lack the ability to do this.
Helping students understand Church history is a vital part of developing a life of faith and shouldn’t be a topic that’s taught only once. We must use history as references throughout our discussions and teaching from Scripture.
We must also be intellectually honest in our teaching of Scripture. Being able to say, “I don’t know” or present several views on matters widely disputed among believers (especially the hot topics we like to take sides on so quickly) is essential to the integrity of our faith.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
Although youth ministry has grown in wisdom and stature, there are very serious conversations in our culture questioning the effectiveness and future need for youth ministry. It’s time for us to seriously consider the potential scenarios that current conditions indicate and begin to respond in ways to strengthen the effectiveness of our efforts.
